The probability that NBER will someday determine a national recession began in the US between December 2025 and December 2026 ...

While the coming recession should not rival the Great Depression, it is expected to be deeper and more prolonged than the ...

The probability of a recession in the next year has been steadily rising since President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements upended the global economic order. Taken at face value, a ...

Despite recent moves by President Donald Trump to ease tariff pressure, recession expectations for the U.S. economy remain elevated, with betting markets still pricing in a greater-than-even chance of ...

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup, or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...